In summary
Analysis of over 460 million shots confirms golfers consistently play their worst golf at the start of a round. The primary cause of the ‘cold start’ is related to short game performance.
- The “Cold Start” is Real: Shot Scope performance data confirms golfers consistently score worse, relative to par, on the first six holes compared to holes 7-12 and 13-18, across all handicap ranges.
- Cause is Short Game: The main contributing factor to players’ worse scoring at the start of the round is short game performance.
- Driving is Consistent: Tee shot performance (Fairways in Regulation) does not vary significantly over the course of the round. Erratic driving is not the cause of the ‘cold start’.
- Getting tired is not experienced universally: On course performance data does not suggest that golfers get tired later in the round, as scoring remains similar between holes 7-12 and 13-18.
- Recommendation: To combat the cold start, golfers should spend time practicing and warming up their short game before the round.
How often do you finish your round and reflect on what could have been had you not gotten off to such a bad start? Do we need a few holes to find our feet? Is there such a thing as a cold start?
To find out, we delved into our database of over 460 million shots to see how golfers performance changes over the course of the round, breaking it down into three categories:
- Holes 1-6
- Holes 7-12
- Holes 13-18
A ‘Cold Start’ is Real
From the Shot Scope database, we see that golfers scoring is typically worse, in relation to par, on the first six holes of their round.
Average Score by Hole Group
| Handicap | Holes 1-6 | Holes 7-12 | Holes 13-18 |
| 25 | +8.69 | +8.58 | +8.59 |
| 15 | +5.69 | +5.57 | +5.57 |
| 5 | +2.68 | +2.60 | +2.61 |
| 0 | +1.35 | +1.29 | +1.27 |
Interestingly, the ‘tired swing’ at the end of the round theory doesn’t hold much water with scoring from holes 7-12 and 13-18 very similar across the handicap ranges. In fact, the scratch golfer produces their best stuff down the stretch with their lowest average score to par in holes 13-18 (+1.27).
Why Do Golfers Struggle at the Start?
If scoring is the worst at the start, what exactly is causing those shots to be dropped?
It’s Not the Tee Shots
You may think a cold or stiff swing may lead to fewer fairways in regulation to start the round but the data says otherwise. FIR% remains consistent across the handicap ranges with minimal differences (less than 1%).
FIR%
| Handicap | Holes 1-6 | Holes 7-12 | Holes 13-18 |
| 25 | 44.8% | 44.9% | 45.1% |
| 15 | 45% | 45.2% | 45.1% |
| 5 | 48.9% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| 0 | 50.5% | 50.9% | 50.4% |
Scoring fluctuations over the course of the round are not a result of erratic tee shots early on, maybe the answer lies further down the fairway.
Players Hit More Greens
Similar to fairways hit, players’ greens in regulation over the course of the round only changes by a small amount, around ~0.6% for the group as a whole, but it is important to remember that this is for hundreds of millions of shots – so there is something in there.
GIR%
| Handicap | Holes 1-6 | Holes 7-12 | Holes 13-18 |
| 25 | 12.6% | 13.3% | 12.9% |
| 15 | 23.5% | 24% | 24.1% |
| 5 | 44% | 44.3% | 43.9% |
| 0 | 54.9% | 55.3% | 55.3% |
When missing greens, players are forced to attempt an up and down which is not always easy, as we learn below:
Short Game Struggles
Here we see the most significant data that causes the cold start.
Up and Down %
| Handicap | Holes 1-6 | Holes 7-12 | Holes 13-18 |
| 25 | 29.1% | 30.9% | 30.8% |
| 15 | 34.8% | 38.1% | 38% |
| 5 | 44.1% | 45.9% | 46% |
| 0 | 52.2% | 52.6% | 53.6% |
Whether you are a low handicapper, mid, or high, all players improve around the greens as the round goes on. For example, a 5 handicapper’s average up and down success rate jumps from 44.1% to 46%, which is the largest change in data we have seen across the different data points studied.
It is here that we see how the cold start occurs. Players are more likely to miss the green at the start of the round, and when they do, they are less likely to get up and down.
Finding the Pace on the Greens
As with the majority of the data, putting performance shows a minor improvement as the round progresses across all handicaps.
Avg Number of Putts
| Handicap | Holes 1-6 | Holes 7-12 | Holes 13-18 |
| 25 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| 15 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| 5 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
This minor improvement could be for a variety of reasons, but as golfers ourselves, we would imagine it as a result of players getting more familiar with green speed. Putts on the first few greens can often give players a feel for the rest of the course.
Regardless of the reason, the first six holes are where players struggle the most on the green.
How to Improve Performance on Your First Six Holes
From the data above, even if the differences are slight, the trend is consistent: players typically play their worst golf in the opening holes.
The areas of the game where they take longer to ‘warm up’ are around and on the greens. Golfers looking to get off to a better start the next time they play should spend some time at the short game area working on their pitching, chipping, and putting.
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