Fresh off of Major success and a Players Championship win at TPC Sawgrass, Rory McIlroy returns to one of his many ‘happy hunting grounds’ as Grand Slam speculation intensifies.
With the second men’s Major of the year, the PGA Championship, less a week away at the ever-popular Quail Hollow, could we soon see the in-form Rory McIlroy raising the Wanamaker Trophy?
Having won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, The Players, and now, after nearly an 11-year drought at the Majors, the Masters, McIlroy is poised for a record breaking season. The metaphorical monkey is off his back and it has been replaced with a Green Jacket.
In doing so, the media and golf fans alike are speculating that Rory could complete the Grand Slam this year. Ridiculous? Perhaps. But if form and past success is anything to go by, a second Major victory at the PGA Championship is not as far-fetched as it may seem on the surface.
Rory’s first PGA Tour win
McIlroy’s form and scoring around Quail Hollow is second to none, and he has proven this on several occasions. His maiden PGA Tour victory was at the venue where he carded a final round 62 for the then course record winning by 7 strokes in 2010.
Five years later, the Northern Irishman would go on to blow away the field with a final score of -21, winning by 7 strokes again, and breaking the course record again with a 61 (-11) in the third round.
A decade later, and with two subsequent wins at Quail Hollow under his belt, there can be no doubt that the course simply suits McIlroy’s eye. Being one of the best drivers of the ball the game has seen allows Rory to take lines off the tee that many on tour simply cannot even consider.
Last season, McIlroy was 4th in Strokes Gained off-the-tee, gaining 0.73 strokes against the field and averaging 320yds total driving distance – 20yds longer than the tour average. According to Shot Scope data, the average amateur golfer has a Performance-Average distance off the tee of 234yds – almost 90yds behind McIlroy.
With his current form, speculation around another Major this year may not be misplaced. However, McIlroy won’t have an easy path to victory, with a field full of the world’s top players and one with past Major success at Quail Hollow: Justin Thomas.
Could Justin Thomas be the one to put an end to the Grand Slam speculation?
Thomas made a dramatic return to the winners circle in April pouring in a 21ft putt to win in a playoff against Andrew Novak at the RBC Heritage. The likelihood of the average amateur golfer making this putt? Just under 9% according to Shot Scope’s ever-growing database of on course shot data collected by performance tracking golfers.
In recent years, Thomas has suffered at points with a drop in form but this win signifies that he is well and truly back to his best and it could not come at a better time. McIlroy may have history at Quail Hollow, but so too does Thomas with his PGA Championship victory at the venue in 2017.
Again, recent form and past success. Thomas is a gritty competitor, and what better place to win your second Major than the place where you won your first?
What it takes to win a Major from a past champion
There is no recipe for guaranteed success, but if there were, form and past success would likely be mixed in there somewhere. Equally important is the ability to handle pressure when it matters most — a theme echoed by the 2002 PGA Championship winner and Shot Scope Ambassador Rich Beem in this mini-documentary. Beem reminds us that champions must be “comfortable being uncomfortable.” Having donned the Green Jacket after such heartbreak in 2011, McIlroy has proven he can handle discomfort on the course.
Could his win at the Masters be the start of a second career Grand Slam after taking over a decade to complete it the first time? Is the golfing community getting ahead of itself by asking the question? Or will Justin Thomas give us all a sense of déjà vu?
The answers to these questions, and the golfing world’s speculation, will be confirmed at the close of play on May 18th.
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