The amateur golfer may score better by removing the choice between laying up and going for it on the 13th at Augusta. Here’s why.
The 13th hole, Azalea, is one of the iconic holes at Augusta with a serious risk or reward element making for high drama throughout the tournament.
Many will remember Mickelson’s iconic shot from behind the tree in the pine needles that narrowly avoided a watery grave in Rae’s Creek and finished 4ft from the pin.
Despite finding the green in two, Mickelson missed the putt and made a four, which took some of the sheen off what was a miraculous approach shot.
Anyway, enough reminiscing.
Let’s look at why the amateur golfer may benefit from playing Augusta from the Pro tees.
The Professionals typically play the hole at around 545yds, whereas the normal tees are nearly 100yds further forward, playing 455yds.
Let’s imagine that the average golfer can safely navigate their way off the normal tee and into the fairway. With driver, they will be looking at roughly 215yds into the green.
Which gives them a decision to make. Layup, or go for it?
After all, 215yds is not unreachable, and if you hit the green, you have a better chance at scoring, right?
Elements of that may be true, but when we take a more data-driven approach, we see that the average amateur golfer (15hcp) from over 200yds only has a 2% chance of hitting the green …
With water short of the green, it is also worthwhile mentioning that from over 200yds, the average amateur misses short 92% of the time.
So, if we move the amateur golfer back 100yds to the pro tees, they will have no choice but to play the 13th at Augusta as a ‘three-shotter’.
With 300yds into the green, amateurs would be forced to lay up and would be faced with a wedge into the green from about 80yds or so for their third.
Now, this is by no means an easy shot with a tricky stance and downhill lie, but their chances of hitting the green at this distance increase from 2% at over 200yds, to 58% at 80yds.
In terms of proximity, inside 80yds, the typical amateur has an average proximity of 42ft.
At its narrowest, the width of the green is 72ft, giving the golfer room for error and still a good chance at finding the putting surface.
This would reward them with a greater chance at hitting the green in regulation, significantly reduce the chance of finding the water, and save them the embarrassment of having to try and retrieve their ball.
Does Augusta even have ball retrievers? Regardless, it saves a lost ball if they don’t!
Attempting an up and down after a visit to the creek is by no means easy, and we have seen the pros struggle with this shot over the years.
So, by removing the choice to go for it, the amateur golfer may, in fact, benefit from playing from the pro tee on the 13th at Augusta National.
How would you handle Augusta National?
Shot Scope performance tracking users can apply their on course data to every hole at Augusta to see how they would handle one of the game’s grandest stages using MyStrategy.
Know your game with Shot Scope.
