Amateurs vs. Pros at Pinehurst No. 2

11 June 2024

This year’s U.S. Open takes place at Pinehurst No. 2, part of the Pinehurst Resort, a collection of world-class golf courses.

In years gone by, Pinehurst has been host to some spectacular U.S. Opens with Martin Kaymer winning by eight shots (2014), Michael Campbell who beat the great Tiger Woods by two strokes (2005), and lastly Payne Stewart (1999).

The 2024 U.S. Open marks 25 years since Payne Stewart won his second Wanamaker Trophy and did so in emphatic style holing an 18ft par put to beat Phil Mickelson by one stroke.

We have used Shot Scope’s MyStrategy tool to see how the average amateur golfer would compare to an average PGA Tour player on the fourth hole, stroke index one.

The fourth hole on No. 2

According to the course guide, this is a reachable par 4 for longer hitters, under normal course conditions. However, when the U.S. Open comes to town, normal course conditions are thrown out the window.

What would typically play between 316-474 yards, depending on tee selection, is moved back to 529y for the U.S Open making it anything but driveable on Championship week.

So naturally we have moved our MyStrategy Benchmark accounts back to the U.S Open tee box to allow for a more accurate representation – amateurs beware!

Note: For both the Pro and Average Amateur we have applied a 10mph tailwind as this is the prevailing wind at Pinehurst.

Average Amateur vs. PGA Tour Average

Unfortunately for our amateur golfer, at around the 250y mark, the width of the fairway is approximately 45y, less than half of their typical dispersion… 

Immediately the chances of finding this narrow slither of fairway are small, but not impossible, this will leave the amateur player with a difficult decision off the tee. 

If you think you are likely to hit into the bunker, or waste areas that line the hole on either side, then a shorter club like 3 wood may be preferred. 

Remember Radar has already told us we are no more likely to find the fairway with 3 wood, just shorter off. 

The typical PGA Tour player will not be faced with such a dilemma as they will be able to simply hit it over the bunker with an average tee shot distance of 300 yards. Perhaps some may elect to lay up but we think this is unlikely given the reward of being closer to the green, plus the entire fairway is pretty narrow so you may as well miss it further up the hole.

When playing under normal conditions, the fourth hole can be a three shot hole for many amateurs and unsurprisingly, under U.S Open conditions, it certainly is.

For the average amateur, if they manage to pull off a great tee shot and find the fairway, they will be left with… the same distance to the green – unfortunately we can’t tee it up in the fairway to go for it in two.

So what do you do? Well for those that say layup to a preferred yardage, you are right, and wrong. Yes, a layup of sorts might be required but you should try to leave yourself as close to the green as possible.

That means don’t try to leave yourself 100y in, instead get it closer to the green because… 

Instead, a shot that carries 180y will leave the player approximately 75y to the middle of the green and even a wayward shot will be short of the the sand traps to the left of the green and fairway. 

Based on Shot Scope benchmark accounts, this would be a well struck shot with 5i or 6i for the average golfer.

For the PGA Tour pro, off the tee they are left with approximately 210y to the green which will be a mid-to-long iron into the green, as a par 4, the only time they won’t be going for this green in two is if they have a disaster off the tee.

From 200-225y, the PGA Tour average proximity is 42ft, the Shot Scope 15hcp Benchmark has the same proximity from 50-75y… if that doesn’t highlight the difference what does?! 

So when the Average Amateur lays up to the 75y mark, the furthest point in the orange, they will face a similar length of putt as our PGA Tour player, but be one stroke worse.

What happens when on the green?

From 42ft, a two putt is more than likely, for our Shot Scope Average Amateur, the likelihood of holing a putt from greater than 30ft is 3% regardless of the green. The PGA Tour average make percentage from greater than 25ft is 5% so its unlikely either will hole it.

Given how difficult it is to get a putt of this distance close to the hole, it is more likely our Average Amateur will 3 putt. On any given green they have a 11% likelihood of three putting whereas our PGA Tour average is 3% with the number one player at 0.85%!

Depending on the tee shot, it is likely that the PGA Tour player will be making par here or bogey, Martin Kaymer played the hole in one stroke over par for his four rounds. Whereas, based on the hypothetical above, the Average Amateur could easily play this hole 2 strokes over par even if things go pretty much to plan!

In fairness to the average Amateur, a 529y hole is almost certainly a par 5 under normal circumstances which ties in with the over par conclusion as their par 5 scoring average is 6.0.

MyStrategy allows golfers to create the optimal strategy for any course they play based on their performance data, save strokes before you play with Shot Scope shot tracking technology.

*PGA Tour Average taken from PGA Tour site