Down the Stretch at Wentworth – BMW PGA Championship

18 September 2024

Ahead of the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth Club, the data team at Shot Scope have pulled some on course performance data to see how the amateur golfer fares – down the stretch is difficult!

So what is the stretch? For this article we are starting at the 15th, why? Well, for the amateur golfer, the 15th is hardest hole on the course, playing a full stroke over par. 

Whereas, at last year’s BMW PGA Championship, the 15th was the third hardest hole of the week playing +0.19 strokes over par, seeing the field record 100 bogeys and 15 doubles or worse. 

The hole is tight off the tee with a slight dogleg left to right, failing to get the ball far enough up the hole may block some players out on the second shot. 

Shot Scope users find the fairway 53% of the time, but only find the green roughly 2 in every 10 attempts – missing the green in regulation is likely where the full stroke over par comes into play.

There are good places to miss the green as well as bad. For all lie types the likelihood of getting up and down is just shy of 50% but those who find the sand see their chances drop to 20% – 1 in 5 odds.

From the Shot Scope database, players typically take two putts to get down making it one of the harder greens to putt on for the amateur golfer. 

Being out of position off the tee on the 15th appears to be costly as players make their way to the finish line.

Having potentially dropped a shot on the 15th, does the 16th give players a chance to get it back?

For the touring pro? Yes. For the amateur? Unlikely.

At last year’s BMW PGA Championship the hole ranked 10th hardest playing 0.02 under par for the tournament. For the club golfer, the hole is ranked 7th and plays 0.62 strokes over par suggesting it could be another dropped shot. 

Amateur golfers struggle to find the fairway on the 16th hole, hitting it every 1 in 3 attempts, one of the hardest fairways to find on the course. The hole is a dogleg left to right, so if you struggle with the stereotypical slice, then this hole won’t suit your eye with bunkers down the right.

The approach to the green slopes back towards the fairway so any balls landing short of the green will likely roll back into the area short of the green and any that leak to the right will find sand.

For the average club golfer, 15hcp, half of their shots come up short when playing into the green so it might be an idea to take a club, or two, extra on the approach shot on 16.

Should you be required to attempt an up and down from any of the lie types, then you have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of saving par – again the tee shot can make or break the hole for players.

Missing the fairway can cost players up to 0.25 strokes compared to finding the fairway – at the BMW PGA Championship, over the course of four rounds that equates to a full stroke!

Down the stretch thus far has been challenging, but there is a glimmer of hope – for the amateur!

Interestingly, for the amateur golfer, the 17th hole is ranked 16th with an average score 0.15 over par. However, with the more challenging set up for the DP World Tour players, the course ranks 5th hardest!

So when the BMW is played, navigating the 17th could derail any competitors looking to raise the trophy on Sunday. For amateurs, this is one of the easier driving holes, finding the short stuff nearly ⅔’s of the time. 

Once players find their way onto the green, which they have a 37% chance of hitting, they are met with statistically the easiest green on the course – players typically take 1.62 putts here.

Whilst the 15th and 16th looked like definite bogeys, a par on 17 seems doable, what about 18?

Well, golfers of all levels and abilities will be delighted to know that for both the club golfer and touring professional it is statistically one of the easier holes on the course!

At the 2023 BMW PGA Championship, the hole ranked 16th (2nd easiest) and for the club golfer, it ranks 12th – no walk in the park but still, it could be worse.

Finding the fairway off the tee is the easiest of any of the holes, with ⅔’s of tee shots finding the short stuff – the hole is a dogleg right so perhaps the stereotypical slice/fade that costs players on the 16th benefits them here.

A par 5 with danger short of the green, in the form of a burn (water hazard) which spans the width of the fairway in two locations. The first, may be in reach for the longer hitters (320yds to reach) and the second guards the green.

Any shots that come up short of the green or pitch too close to the front may find their way into the water and as we know, the amateur golfer has a tendency for a short miss – play to the back of the green yardage on your GPS watch!

Or, although perhaps less exciting, playing the hole as a three-shotter and hitting a wedge onto the green may be the less risky option.

However, if push comes to shove on Sunday at the BMW PGA Championship and players need to make something happen, then going for it may be the only option.

One thing that is evident from the above data, Wentworth promises drama in the closing stages and players will not feel truly comfortable until their ball finds the putting surface on 18.

We took a deep dive into the stats behind the 18th at Wentworth here.

Want to know how your game stacks up against the challenge that is Wentworth? Check out Shot Scope’s MyStrategy feature.

Free to use for all Shot Scope users, MyStrategy allows players to overlay their on course performance data on any one of the 36,000 mapped courses worldwide to create their very own data driven strategy.

You don’t have to be a performance tracker to try it. With any Shot Scope product whether it be a laser rangefinder, GPS watch, or handheld you gain access to MyStrategy.
Get the most out of your game with Shot Scope.

Note: Average handicap index for the data used is 9. DP World Tour Stats taken from europeantour.com

Cover Image Credit: Osprey Pixels / Shutterstock